Sports Articles Johnson

Picking 3 NFL Week 3 Winners

Thursday Night’s Recap
Pick – Mets over Marlins
Result – Loss
Amount - 50 units
Season Bankroll - +$200

Today’s forecast.

The Mets pulled off a gigantic choke job last night. But it’s time for football again and it’s a big week 3.

My 3 best bets are:
Patriots – 16.5 over Texans
Lions +6 over Eagles
Broncos -3 over Jaguars

Featured game:

For a team that has endured its share of hard times already this season, the Buffalo Bills don figure to get any breaks again in Week 3, when the dispirited club will travel to Gillette Stadium for Sundays matchup with the powerful New England Patriots.

Buffalo began its 2007 campaign on a most calamitous note, as a last-second field goal by Denvers Jason Elam sent Dick Jaurons team to stinging 15-14 home defeat. That painful outcome was overshadowed, however, by a life- threatening neck injury suffered by Bills tight end Kevin Everett on the opening kickoff of the second half.

The Bills also lost two key members of the secondary, free safety Ko Simpson and cornerback Jason Webster, to season-ending injuries in the opener. The depleted and shell-shocked squad then proceeded to get run over by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who cruised to a 26-3 win over their overmatched opponent last Sunday at Heinz Field.

Buffalos problems don pertain solely to its shorthanded defense. The offense has mustered just one touchdown and an average of 203.5 total yards through the first two weeks, while fourth-year quarterback J.P. Losman has shown signs of regression after making significant progress in 2006.

Now the Bills have to face a New England team thats looked every bit like the Super Bowl contender it was envisioned to be by most preseason prognosticators. The Patriots have throttled a pair of 2006 playoff teams, the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers, by identical 38-14 scores to begin the season, and already own a two-game advantage over the rest of the pack in the AFC East.

Last weeks rather easy disposal of a San Diego contingent that won a league- best 14 regular-season games a year ago helped the controversy surrounding Bill Belichicks in-game tactics subside a bit. The Patriots mastermind head coach was slapped with a hefty $500,000 fine by commissioner Roger Goodell after a team employee was caught illegally videotaping Jets defensive coaches as they were relaying hand signals during New Englands Week 1 win. The Patriots will also lose at least one 2008 draft pick as punishment for the incident.

The heavy media scrutiny surrounding the videotaping episode clearly didn present a distraction to New England, which roared out to a 24-0 halftime lead over the Chargers and outgained San Diego by a decided 407-201 margin in total yards.

Historical Perspective

The Patriots hold a 52-40-1 edge over the Bills in a series that dates back to 1960, and have claimed 12 of the last 13 overall, including home-and-home sweeps in 2004, 2005, and 2006. New England was a 19-17 home winner over Buffalo in Week 1 of last season, and took a 28-6 decision at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 7. The Bills are 0-7 against New England since their 31-0 home victory to open 2003, and are 0-6 in Foxborough since claiming a a 16-13 overtime win there in 2000.

Belichick holds a 12-3 record against the Bills in his career, including a 11-2 mark while with New England. Jauron is 1-3 against both the Patriots and Belichick as a head coach, including 0-2 since taking over the Bills.

Buffalo Analysis

Buffalos production on offense has been woeful through the first two games, as the Bills rank last in the NFL in passing yards (96.5 ypg) and first downs (23), next to last in total yards (203.5 ypg) and 30th out of 32 teams in points (17). Losman has thrown for a mere 251 yards and no touchdowns over the two defeats, but the confident young quarterback has also often found himself running for his life due to the offensive lines protection struggles. Wide receiver Lee Evans, who compiled 82 catches for 1,292 yards during a breakout 2006, has just four receptions for 22 yards thus far. Losmans top target has been No. 3 wideout Roscoe Parrish (8 receptions), who matched a career best with six grabs in last weeks loss.

One bright spot on the Buffalo offense has been the showing of rookie running back Marshawn Lynch, who has totaled 154 rushing yards and is averaging a solid 4.2 yards per attempt through his first two NFL games. The 2007 first- round draft choice had an impressive 23-yard touchdown run during the Bills Week 1 defeat to the Broncos.

Its hard to anticipate an offensive breakout for Buffalo against a New England stop unit that has been smothering in the early going. The Patriots have yielded an average of 56 rushing yards and 214 total yards per game, both tops in the NFL at the moment, despite being without two valued starters in defensive end Richard Seymour (knee) and strong safety Rodney Harrison (suspension). New England limited reigning league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson to only 43 yards on 18 rush attempts in last Sundays triumph.

A veteran linebacking corps has been at the forefront of the Patriots superb defensive play. Mike Vrabel (12 tackles) currently leads the league with 3 1/2 sacks, Roosevelt Colvin (5 tackles) had two sacks and an interception in the San Diego game and newcomer Adalius Thomas (8 tackles) returned a pick 65 yards for a touchdown in last weeks win.

New England Analysis

New Englands offseason additions of wide receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker have greatly aided superstar quarterback Tom Brady (576 passing yards, 1 INT), whos put up MVP-caliber numbers in the teams back-to-back victories. The unflappable Brady has completed nearly 80 percent of his passes and thrown for five scores so far. The resurrection of Moss after two forgettable years in Oakland has made the biggest impact, as the moody wideout has racked up 288 yards and three touchdowns on 17 grabs. Ex-Dolphin Welker (14 receptions, 1 TD) had eight catches in the big win over the Chargers, while underrated tight end Ben Watson (7 receptions, 2 TD) is one of Bradys most trusted red-zone targets.

The Patriots have kept their familiar two-back system despite the offseason retirement of Corey Dillon, with former Bill Sammy Morris (105 rushing yards, 1 TD) now forming one-half of an effective duo with starter Laurence Maroney (149 rushing yards). The pair has helped New England average a strong 140 yards on the ground through two weeks of play.

Both running backs should find continued success against a Buffalo defense that has allowed both Denvers Travis Henry (139 rushing yards) and Pittsburghs Willie Parker (126 yards) to have productive afternoons. Rookie middle linebacker Paul Posluszny and Jim Leonhard, who has taken Simpsons place at free safety, have been the most active members of a group thats yielded a subpar average of 445 total yards per game. Posluszny leads the team with 22 tackles, while Leonard has 20 stops along with both of Buffalos interceptions. Regular weakside linebacker Keith Ellison is slated to miss a third straight game with a high ankle sprain, with special teams ace John DiGiorgio (6 tackles) the likely fill-in.

Buffalos already banged-up secondary has further health concerns heading into this weeks contest, as starting cornerbacks Terrence McGee (9 tackles, 3 PD) and Ashton Youboty (8 tackles) each left the Pittsburgh game with rib and ankle injuries, respectively. Both players are expected to be in Sundays lineup, however.

Summary

With New England being the healthier and significantly superior of the two teams, only a colossal letdown by the Patriots would give the reeling Bills a chance to pull off such an upset on the road. Unfortunately for the rest of the NFL, the videotaping scandal has now given New England plenty of reason to be motivated from here on out. Belichick won have to resort to any form of chicanery for the Patriots to remain undefeated.

Favorite / Spread / Underdog / My Picks

Indianapolis / 6 / HOUSTON / Indianapolis
NEW ENGLAND / 16.5 / Buffalo / NEW ENGLAND
NEW YORK (NYJ) / 3 / Miami / NEW YORK (NYJ)
PHILADELPHIA / 6 / Detroit / Detroit
PITTSBURGH / 9 / San Francisco / PITTSBURGH
TAMPA BAY / 3.5 / St. Louis / St. Louis
San Diego / 5 / GREEN BAY / San Diego
BALTIMORE / 8 / Arizona / Arizona
KANSAS CITY / 3 / Minnesota / Minnesota
OAKLAND / 3/ Cleveland / Cleveland
SEATTLE / 3.5 / Cincinnati / DENVER
DENVER / 3 / Jacksonville / DENVER
Carolina / 3.5 / ATLANTA / ATLANTA
WASHINGTON / 3.5 / Giants / WASHINGTON
CHICAGO / 3 / Dallas / Dallas
NEW ORLEANS / 4 / Tennessee / Tennessee



Good luck with your action tonight!


by Johnson